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Alcorcon 2–0 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win35%2.80
Draw33%2.95
Levante UD win32%3.04

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Toño · Levante UD
26'⚽ (pen)David Rodriguez · Alcorcon
29'🟨Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
29'🟨Pedro López · Levante UD
40'⚽ (og)Sergio Postigo · Alcorcon
64'🟨David Navarro · Alcorcon
78'🟥Pablo Pérez · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.33
box share (last 5)0.560.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days119.00211.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.303.28
elo1449.15
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
1549.50
elo momentum (last 5)2.7052.14
eye test v1-0.66-0.07
eye trend v1-0.120.12
first sub minute (last 10)59.8056.50
form points (last 5)7.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.560.67
keeper form v10.650.87
league points26.0049.00
league rank15.001.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.8074.80
possession avg (last 5)47.2045.00
rest days7.006.25
scorer concentration0.430.36
season ppg1.182.23
skill v1-1.30-0.52
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
state index-0.040.73
sterile dominance v1-0.39-0.68
threat rate (last 10)0.210.27
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.200.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80