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Ucam Murcia 1–0 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ucam Murcia win42%2.31
Draw32%3.05
Zaragoza win26%3.78

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Cani · Zaragoza
23'🟨— · Zaragoza
26'⚽Juan Collantes · Ucam Murcia
47'🟨Marcelo Silva · Zaragoza
57'🟨Vullnet Basha · Ucam Murcia
77'🟨Hugo Álvarez · Ucam Murcia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUcam MurciaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.35
box share (last 5)0.630.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days51.00112.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.781.63
elo1418.56
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de La Condomina
1426.37
elo momentum (last 5)-39.20-12.07
eye test v1-0.94-0.71
eye trend v1-0.14-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)54.5063.00
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.03
keeper form v10.730.68
league points20.0027.00
league rank22.0014.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.007.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4075.60
possession avg (last 5)45.0051.20
rest days7.087.00
scorer concentration0.210.35
season ppg0.951.29
skill v1-1.41-0.00
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.80
state index-1.13-0.66
sterile dominance v1-0.580.50
threat rate (last 10)0.220.19
threat rate (last 3)0.180.15
threat rate (last 5)0.210.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80