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Huesca 0–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win42%2.30
Draw31%3.12
Alcorcon win26%3.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Carlos Akapo · Huesca
19'🟨David Ferreiro · Huesca
21'🟨Jair Amador · Huesca
41'🟨Lucien Owona · Alcorcon
48'🟨Carlos Luque · Alcorcon
61'🟨Samu Sáiz · Huesca
75'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
78'🟨Nelson · Alcorcon
82'🟨Carlos Akapo · Huesca
82'🟥Carlos Akapo · Huesca
83'⚽David Navarro · Alcorcon
86'🟨Foued Kadir · Alcorcon
89'🟨Marko Dmitrović · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.35
box share (last 5)0.640.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days417.00112.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.863.27
elo1487.76
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
1436.04
elo momentum (last 5)-2.39-23.22
eye test v1-0.13-0.48
eye trend v1-0.65-0.34
first sub minute (last 10)57.2060.10
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.711.56
keeper form v10.720.65
league points28.0023.00
league rank11.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6068.60
possession avg (last 5)58.6049.60
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.190.46
season ppg1.331.10
skill v10.31-0.86
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
state index-0.11-0.89
sterile dominance v10.69-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.150.18
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.00