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Girona 4–2 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Manuel Lopez Amaya, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win58%1.67
Draw26%3.69
Gimnastic win15%6.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Pablo Marí · Girona
26'⚽ (pen)Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
31'🟨Ferran Giner · Gimnastic
39'⚽Samuele Longo · Girona
42'⚽Sergio Tejera · Gimnastic
48'⚽Juanpe · Girona
64'🟨Sergio Tejera · Gimnastic
72'🟨Daisuke Suzuki · Gimnastic
73'🟨Miguel Cordero · Gimnastic
73'⚽ (pen)Fran Sandaza · Girona
76'🟥Juan Delgado · Gimnastic
83'🟨Stephane Emana · Gimnastic
88'⚽Cristian Herrera · Girona
89'🟨Stephane Emana · Gimnastic
89'🟥Stephane Emana · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.40
box share (last 5)0.640.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1095.0016.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.901.78
elo1535.59
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Montilivi
1364.49
elo momentum (last 5)29.701.95
eye test v10.33-0.40
eye trend v10.38-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)59.8051.90
form points (last 5)12.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.25
keeper form v10.760.70
league points30.0016.00
league rank3.0022.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4073.80
possession avg (last 5)46.8053.20
rest days6.087.17
scorer concentration0.230.31
season ppg1.670.89
skill v1-0.99-0.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.60
state index0.49-0.65
sterile dominance v1-0.960.46
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.17
threat rate (last 5)0.290.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80