⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Tenerife 2–0 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win43%2.27
Draw31%3.10
Alcorcon win26%3.82

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Amath Ndiaye · Tenerife
38'🟨Tropi · Alcorcon
40'🟨Federico Vega · Alcorcon
56'🟨Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife
66'🟨Camille · Tenerife
84'🟨Ismael Falcon · Tenerife
88'⚽Aaron Ñiguez · Tenerife
90'🟥Adrián Diéguez · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.540.50
box share (last 5)0.700.73
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days412.0077.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.673.16
elo1456.54
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
1457.61
elo momentum (last 5)17.2712.81
eye test v1-0.460.14
eye trend v1-0.120.58
first sub minute (last 10)60.2060.80
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.56
keeper form v10.730.67
league points23.0022.00
league rank14.0015.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet9.004.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.8066.60
possession avg (last 5)43.4044.20
rest days6.926.00
scorer concentration0.270.46
season ppg1.281.22
skill v1-1.40-1.47
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.20
state index0.02-0.30
sterile dominance v1-0.32-0.89
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.29
threat rate (last 5)0.170.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.00