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Oviedo 1–0 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win46%2.14
Draw31%3.18
Gimnastic win24%4.12

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Toché · Oviedo
27'🟨Gerard Valentín · Gimnastic
43'🟨Toché · Oviedo
45'🟨Néstor Susaeta · Oviedo
60'🟨Xavier Molina · Gimnastic
67'🟨Hector Verdes · Oviedo
69'🟨Sergio Tejera · Gimnastic
72'🟨Jon Erice · Oviedo
88'🟨Miguel Cordero · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.38
box share (last 5)0.600.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days186.003.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.102.77
elo1495.99
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
1378.95
elo momentum (last 5)-16.3132.80
eye test v1-1.08-0.22
eye trend v1-0.190.12
first sub minute (last 10)62.9049.90
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.20
keeper form v10.660.65
league points23.0016.00
league rank8.0022.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.8070.00
possession avg (last 5)48.0047.80
rest days7.928.83
scorer concentration0.290.31
season ppg1.441.00
skill v1-0.78-0.88
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.004.20
state index-0.23-0.18
sterile dominance v10.12-0.48
threat rate (last 10)0.180.25
threat rate (last 3)0.120.21
threat rate (last 5)0.160.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80