⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Ucam Murcia 0–1 Girona

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Nov 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Manuel Lopez Amaya, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ucam Murcia win41%2.37
Draw32%3.04
Girona win27%3.66

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Fran Pérez · Ucam Murcia
47'🟨Jonas Ramalho · Girona
60'🟨Samuele Longo · Girona
62'⚽Samuele Longo · Girona
78'🟨Vullnet Basha · Ucam Murcia
79'🟨Alex Granell · Girona
81'🟨Juanma Delgado · Ucam Murcia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUcam MurciaGirona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.29
box share (last 5)0.620.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—1061.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.501.72
elo1470.09
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de La Condomina
1505.89
elo momentum (last 5)-31.58-5.74
eye test v1-0.74-0.79
eye trend v1-0.080.00
first sub minute (last 10)48.0056.20
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.20
keeper form v1—0.62
league points15.0018.00
league rank19.0012.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4067.60
possession avg (last 5)54.6049.40
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.250.22
season ppg1.151.38
skill v1-0.05-1.08
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.00
state index-0.55-0.12
sterile dominance v10.40-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.190.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80