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Mirandes 0–1 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirandes win44%2.23
Draw28%3.45
Gimnastic win28%3.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

56'⚽Juan Muñiz · Gimnastic
77'🟨Gerard Valentín · Gimnastic
78'🟨Juan Muñiz · Gimnastic
87'🟨Iker Guarrotxena · Mirandes
88'🟨Ferran Giner · Gimnastic
90'🟨Fran Cruz · Mirandes
90'🟨Mossa · Gimnastic
90'🟨Stole Dimitrievski · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirandesGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.130.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.30
box share (last 5)0.520.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—4480.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.992.67
elo1472.85
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Anduva
1347.66
elo momentum (last 5)-48.25-15.11
eye test v1-1.11-0.14
eye trend v1-0.620.00
first sub minute (last 10)45.6053.30
form points (last 5)2.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.29
keeper form v10.670.56
league points15.007.00
league rank12.0022.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet8.006.00
matches since win5.0013.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8074.20
possession avg (last 5)51.0049.80
rest days6.756.75
scorer concentration0.380.30
season ppg1.250.58
skill v1-0.83-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)1.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.00
state index-0.82-1.55
sterile dominance v1-0.03-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.170.24
threat rate (last 5)0.190.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20