⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Cadiz 2–2 Ucam Murcia

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Eiriz Mata, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win40%2.46
Draw33%2.98
Ucam Murcia win28%3.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Aridane Hernández · Cadiz
14'⚽Gorka Santamaria · Cadiz
28'🟨Sergio Mora · Ucam Murcia
39'🟨Fran Pérez · Ucam Murcia
59'🟨Carlos Calvo · Cadiz
67'🟨Aridane Hernández · Cadiz
81'⚽Jesús Imaz · Ucam Murcia
82'🟨Jesús Imaz · Ucam Murcia
86'🟨Carlos Calvo · Cadiz
86'🟥Carlos Calvo · Cadiz
90'🟨Juanma Delgado · Ucam Murcia
90'⚽Juanma Delgado · Ucam Murcia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizUcam Murcia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.32
box share (last 5)0.640.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days205.00—
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.372.11
elo1411.46
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
1468.43
elo momentum (last 5)-16.04-22.73
eye test v1-0.47-0.42
eye trend v1-0.110.18
first sub minute (last 10)57.9049.60
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.20
keeper form v10.730.67
league points10.0011.00
league rank20.0019.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win4.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.2072.60
possession avg (last 5)48.6051.00
rest days6.927.00
scorer concentration0.500.22
season ppg1.001.10
skill v1-1.20-0.42
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.60
state index-0.74-0.53
sterile dominance v1-0.49-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00