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Almeria 3–0 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win44%2.23
Draw30%3.29
Gimnastic win27%3.67

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Gerard Valentín · Gimnastic
28'⚽Antonio Puertas · Almeria
32'🟨Xavier Molina · Gimnastic
52'🟨Gerard Valentín · Gimnastic
52'🟥Gerard Valentín · Gimnastic
68'⚽Antonio Puertas · Almeria
70'🟨Quique · Almeria
72'🟨Angel Trujillo · Almeria
85'🟨Fidel · Almeria
85'🟨Juan Muñiz · Gimnastic
90'⚽Quique · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.24
box share (last 5)0.690.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days83.004466.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.542.57
elo1393.45
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
1359.01
elo momentum (last 5)-14.64-15.02
eye test v1-0.86-0.37
eye trend v1-0.010.43
first sub minute (last 10)49.4052.70
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.25
keeper form v10.69—
league points8.006.00
league rank21.0022.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win7.0011.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.2075.00
possession avg (last 5)43.0053.00
rest days7.926.92
scorer concentration0.250.38
season ppg0.800.60
skill v1-1.61-0.00
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.40
state index-1.00-1.32
sterile dominance v1-0.94-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.29
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40