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Mallorca 1–0 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win47%2.09
Draw32%3.05
Alcorcon win21%4.57

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Iván González · Alcorcon
33'🟨Emmanuel Culio · Mallorca
42'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Alcorcon
70'🟨Juan Dominguez · Mallorca
71'🟨Hector Yuste · Mallorca
71'🟨Iván Alejo · Alcorcon
73'🟨Joan Oriol · Mallorca
75'🟨David Navarro · Alcorcon
76'⚽ (pen)Lago Júnior · Mallorca
79'🟨Lago Júnior · Mallorca
80'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Alcorcon
80'🟥Manuel Sánchez · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.17
box share (last 5)0.540.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days296.0022.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.032.50
elo1450.81
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
1452.42
elo momentum (last 5)0.50-21.41
eye test v1-0.41-1.26
eye trend v10.340.31
first sub minute (last 10)53.7057.00
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.52
keeper form v10.640.77
league points10.0010.00
league rank20.0019.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2067.60
possession avg (last 5)47.4049.80
rest days7.677.75
scorer concentration0.67—
season ppg1.001.00
skill v1-0.62-1.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.201.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.601.80
state index-0.18-0.65
sterile dominance v1-0.31-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.250.19
threat rate (last 3)0.260.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40