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Alcorcon 0–0 Almeria

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win44%2.22
Draw32%3.09
Almeria win24%4.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Fran Vélez · Almeria
15'🟨Fidel · Almeria
22'🟨David Navarro · Alcorcon
24'🟨Fran Vélez · Almeria
24'🟥Fran Vélez · Almeria
34'🟨Joaquín Fernández · Almeria
52'🟨Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
70'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Alcorcon
73'🟨Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
77'🟨Casto · Almeria
90'🟨Iván González · Alcorcon
90'🟨Juanjo Expósito · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.160.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.160.33
box share (last 5)0.540.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days14.0075.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)—3.54
elo1455.89
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
1389.97
elo momentum (last 5)-32.28-29.42
eye test v1-1.42-0.67
eye trend v10.40-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)56.6750.78
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)—1.29
keeper form v10.760.68
league points9.007.00
league rank20.0021.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4072.60
possession avg (last 5)47.6046.60
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration—0.25
season ppg1.000.78
skill v1-1.37-0.75
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)1.893.56
sot for avg (last 3)2.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)1.603.20
state index-0.66-1.32
sterile dominance v1-0.63-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.200.23
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)—0.20