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Elche CF 4–4 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Oct 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win40%2.44
Draw32%3.06
Gimnastic win28%3.47

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Javier Matilla · Elche CF
-5'🟥Javier Matilla · Elche CF
12'⚽Alex López · Gimnastic
15'⚽Nino · Elche CF
19'⚽Nino · Elche CF
21'🟨Iago Bouzon · Gimnastic
40'🟨José Ángel · Elche CF
61'🟨Mossa · Gimnastic
61'🟨Wilfried Zahibo · Gimnastic
62'⚽Javier Matilla · Elche CF
64'🟨Javier Matilla · Elche CF
66'🟨Pedro · Elche CF
67'⚽ (pen)Sergio Tejera · Gimnastic
70'⚽Alex López · Gimnastic
75'⚽Jean Luc Gbayara · Gimnastic
77'🟨Sebastian Saja · Gimnastic
79'⚽Albert Dorca · Elche CF
84'🟨Nino · Elche CF
90'🟨Josete · Elche CF
90'🟨Iago Bouzon · Gimnastic
90'🟨Jean Luc Gbayara · Gimnastic
90'🟥Iago Bouzon · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.13
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.22
box share (last 5)0.530.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days465.004451.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.163.01
elo1468.16
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
1364.63
elo momentum (last 5)-18.32-22.76
eye test v1-0.82-0.61
eye trend v10.24-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)57.6251.75
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.67
keeper form v10.760.69
league points10.005.00
league rank13.0022.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2075.60
possession avg (last 5)56.8057.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.29—
season ppg1.250.63
skill v10.630.42
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.633.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.402.80
state index-0.54-1.28
sterile dominance v10.940.50
threat rate (last 10)0.150.23
threat rate (last 3)0.170.24
threat rate (last 5)0.160.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80