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Gimnastic 1–1 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Sep 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pedro Jesus Perez Montero, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win35%2.81
Gimnastic win35%2.81
Draw31%3.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Xavier Molina · Gimnastic
44'🟨Wilfried Zahibo · Gimnastic
51'🟨Ferran Giner · Gimnastic
59'🟨Roger Martí · Levante UD
60'🟨Iago Bouzon · Gimnastic
64'⚽Chema · Levante UD
69'🟨Abraham Minero · Levante UD
82'🟨Chema · Levante UD
85'⚽Juan Muñiz · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.600.28
cards avg (last 5)0.001.60
coach days4417.0065.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
1.80
-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.471.83
elo1534.441548.74
elo momentum (last 5)18.0720.74
eye test v1-0.38-0.67
form points (last 5)9.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.79
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.73—
matches since blank6.008.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.5074.50
possession avg (last 5)49.5051.50
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.003.00
skill v1-0.78-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)5.502.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.00
squad age26.6725.65
state index0.320.17
sterile dominance v1-0.39-0.03
threat rate (last 3)0.230.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60