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Numancia 1–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Sep 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Manuel Arias Lopez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win39%2.53
Draw32%3.03
Alcorcon win29%3.33

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽David Rodriguez · Alcorcon
19'⚽Alexander Callens · Numancia
23'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Alcorcon
56'🟨Sergio Aguza · Alcorcon
58'🟨Unai Medina · Numancia
71'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Alcorcon
84'🟨Álvaro Rey · Alcorcon
89'🟨Eneko Capilla · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.560.35
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days461.0095.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
-0.60
—
corners against avg (last 5)4.80—
corners for avg (last 5)4.20—
corners volatility (last 10)2.16—
elo1485.541488.89
elo momentum (last 5)-3.670.80
eye test v1-1.26-1.34
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.37
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.0073.50
possession avg (last 5)48.5049.00
rest days9.007.00
season ppg0.500.50
skill v1-1.33-0.55
sot against avg (last 5)3.504.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.502.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.502.00
state index-0.06-0.15
sterile dominance v1-0.160.34
threat rate (last 3)0.150.13
threat rate (last 5)0.150.13
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20