← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 39% | 2.49 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 33% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Florian Neuhaus · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 53' | 🟨 | Florian Neuhaus · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 58' | 🟨 | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 64' | ⚽ | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 65' | 🟨 | Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Ballas · Dresden |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1032.00 | 788.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1446.09 | 1525.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.73 | -13.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| league points | 43.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 24.77 | 26.70 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |