← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 48% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.58 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 25% | 3.85 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 68.00 | 711.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1530.06 | 1536.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.10 | 22.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| league points | 29.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.73 | 26.32 |
| state index | -0.67 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |