← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Arne Aarnink, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 41% | 2.40 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 31% | 3.14 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 558.00 | 436.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1483.51 | 1578.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 54.50 | 23.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.45 | 26.59 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |