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Zaragoza 3–2 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win39%2.49
Draw31%3.14
Valladolid win30%3.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Borja Iglesias · Zaragoza
47'🟨Kiko Olivas · Valladolid
53'⚽Toni Villa · Valladolid
59'🟨Jordi Masip · Valladolid
60'🟨Javi Moyano · Valladolid
60'🟨Borja Herrera · Valladolid
60'⚽ (pen)Borja Iglesias · Zaragoza
62'🟥Íñigo Eguaras · Zaragoza
76'⚽ (pen)Borja Iglesias · Zaragoza
80'🟨Giannis Gianniotas · Valladolid
90'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
90'⚽Fernando Calero · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots23
5On target6
3Corners5
17Fouls19
1Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.570.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.540.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.570.71
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
coach days330.0056.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-11.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)13.402.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.171.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.430.53
elo1536.921532.96
elo momentum (last 5)19.8243.15
eye test v10.650.06
eye trend v1-0.010.27
first sub minute (last 10)53.7062.40
form points (last 5)10.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.64
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.810.76
league points72.0071.00
league rank3.006.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8075.80
possession avg (last 5)54.8052.80
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.320.48
season ppg1.641.61
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.402.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.4011.40
skill v10.770.12
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.80
squad age26.5328.68
state index0.460.72
sterile dominance v10.740.34
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.170.21
threat rate (last 5)0.200.21
venue ppg (last 5)3.002.00