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Alcorcon 4–0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw37%2.60
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win33%2.93
Alcorcon win30%3.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Álvaro Peña · Alcorcon
43'🟨David Fernandez · Alcorcon
54'🟨Albert Dorca · Alcorcon
63'🟨Dani Jiménez · Alcorcon
67'⚽Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
77'⚽Mateo García · Alcorcon
81'🟨Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
88'🟨Unai López · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
88'⚽Álvaro Giménez · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots10
6On target2
2Corners8
20Fouls20
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconRayo Vallecano de Madrid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.410.47
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
2.60
coach days596.00473.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.031.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.11
dominance (last 5)0.530.52
elo1407.001599.23
elo momentum (last 5)-16.3316.38
eye test v1-0.920.75
eye trend v1-0.140.20
first sub minute (last 10)62.4064.10
form points (last 5)3.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.531.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.101.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.760.71
league points47.0078.00
league rank21.001.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win7.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8082.40
possession avg (last 5)57.0052.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.34
season ppg1.091.81
shot diff avg (last 5)1.201.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.0013.40
skill v10.400.75
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.60
squad age30.5327.02
state index-0.610.53
sterile dominance v10.860.20
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.160.29
threat rate (last 5)0.170.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80