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Lorca FC 1–5 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win51%1.88
Draw28%3.49
Lorca FC win21%4.62

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Carlos Pomares · Lorca FC
33'⚽Borja · Valladolid
40'🟨Fernando Calero · Valladolid
50'🟨Fran Cruz · Lorca FC
50'⚽ (pen)Jaime Mata · Valladolid
54'🟨Nacho Martinez · Valladolid
73'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
87'⚽Míchel Herrero · Valladolid
89'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots17
1On target11
4Corners4
10Fouls8
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLorca FCValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.680.70
cards avg (last 5)3.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco Artes Carrasco
coach days291.0048.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.002.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.602.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.602.42
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.470.51
elo1336.261520.65
elo momentum (last 5)25.2221.93
eye test v1-1.03-0.49
eye trend v1-0.09-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)61.8061.20
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.680.79
league points31.0068.00
league rank22.006.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6075.80
possession avg (last 5)44.6053.80
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.160.48
season ppg0.741.58
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.001.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.0010.60
skill v1-0.970.19
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.40
squad age26.5029.11
state index-0.190.28
sterile dominance v1-0.240.51
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.180.17
threat rate (last 5)0.200.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60