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Gimnastic 5–3 Cultural Leonesa

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gimnastic win45%2.13
Draw29%3.32
Cultural Leonesa win26%3.77

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Antonio Martinez Felipe · Cultural Leonesa
17'⚽Emiliano Buendía · Cultural Leonesa
26'🟨Jean Luc Gbayara · Gimnastic
36'🟨Maikel Mesa · Gimnastic
36'🟨Iván Garrido · Cultural Leonesa
51'🟨Otar Kakabadze · Gimnastic
54'⚽Álvaro Vázquez · Gimnastic
56'⚽Manu Barreiro · Gimnastic
58'🟨Emiliano Buendía · Cultural Leonesa
60'🟨Javi Marquez · Gimnastic
66'🟨Antonio Martinez Felipe · Cultural Leonesa
72'⚽Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
75'⚽Manu Barreiro · Gimnastic
81'🟨Iván Garrido · Cultural Leonesa
81'🟥Iván Garrido · Cultural Leonesa
84'🟨Javi Jiménez · Gimnastic
84'⚽Nicolao Dumitru · Gimnastic
87'🟨Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
90'🟨Sergio Tejera · Gimnastic
90'⚽Josep Señé · Cultural Leonesa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
16Shots12
6On target4
9Corners2
27Fouls20
7Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticCultural Leonesa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.570.59
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
3.20
coach days5.00748.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.000.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.842.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.520.45
elo1391.151439.98
elo momentum (last 5)-47.2921.73
eye test v1-0.74-0.46
eye trend v10.05-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)58.8058.70
form points (last 5)1.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.820.66
league points46.0051.00
league rank21.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0078.80
possession avg (last 5)50.4048.20
rest days5.926.00
scorer concentration0.240.21
season ppg1.071.19
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.2010.00
skill v1-0.540.12
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.20
squad age27.7325.45
state index-1.02-0.14
sterile dominance v1-0.160.15
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20