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Huesca 1–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Eiriz Mata, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win53%1.83
Draw29%3.36
Alcorcon win18%5.31

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Nono · Alcorcon
31'🟨Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
37'🟨Álvaro Giménez · Alcorcon
38'🟨Jorge Pulido · Huesca
58'⚽Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
82'🟨Álvaro Peña · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots9
6On target2
7Corners3
13Fouls19
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.590.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.730.47
cards avg (last 5)2.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
coach days316.00589.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.230.02
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.202.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.632.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.07
dominance (last 5)0.470.52
elo1568.871401.25
elo momentum (last 5)35.53-23.62
eye test v10.15-0.95
eye trend v10.45-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)62.5062.20
form points (last 5)13.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.640.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.730.75
league points76.0046.00
league rank2.0019.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6074.20
possession avg (last 5)51.0058.20
rest days8.009.00
scorer concentration0.270.26
season ppg1.811.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.201.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.409.20
skill v1-0.330.32
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.40
squad age26.2030.50
state index0.58-0.79
sterile dominance v1-0.130.96
threat rate (last 10)0.200.21
threat rate (last 3)0.200.18
threat rate (last 5)0.240.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80