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Oviedo 1–0 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win60%1.63
Draw26%3.73
Gimnastic win14%6.78

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Daisuke Suzuki · Gimnastic
24'🟨McDonald Mariga · Oviedo
36'⚽Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
54'🟨Javi Jiménez · Gimnastic
58'🟨Tete Morente · Gimnastic
68'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
70'🟨Cesar Arzo · Gimnastic
75'🟨Maikel Mesa · Gimnastic
78'🟨Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
79'🟨Juan Muñiz · Gimnastic
82'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
89'🟨Cesar Arzo · Gimnastic
89'🟥Cesar Arzo · Gimnastic
90'🟨Álvaro Vázquez · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots11
6On target2
1Corners4
17Fouls22
4Yellow cards8
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.720.60
cards avg (last 5)3.204.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
coach days288.00226.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.208.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.162.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.05
dominance (last 5)0.440.35
elo1522.591444.67
elo momentum (last 5)-12.5413.17
eye test v1-1.24-1.02
eye trend v10.010.13
first sub minute (last 10)64.4052.60
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.630.81
league points60.0045.00
league rank7.0017.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.6067.40
possession avg (last 5)46.4042.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.150.24
season ppg1.621.22
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-10.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.409.40
skill v1-1.47-1.45
sot against avg (last 5)2.206.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.603.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.402.60
squad age29.0926.59
state index-0.11-0.14
sterile dominance v1-0.28-0.75
threat rate (last 10)0.190.23
threat rate (last 3)0.190.26
threat rate (last 5)0.180.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40