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Gimnastic 0–2 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gimnastic win39%2.46
Cordoba win33%2.95
Draw28%3.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Javi Marquez · Gimnastic
24'🟨Cesar Arzo · Gimnastic
26'⚽Aythami Artiles · Cordoba
45'🟨Fali · Gimnastic
61'🟨Alex Quintanilla · Cordoba
62'🟨Javi Galán · Cordoba
76'🟨Sergio Tejera · Gimnastic
86'⚽Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
87'🟨Julio Pleguezuelo · Gimnastic
87'🟨Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
90'🟨Javi Galán · Cordoba
90'🟨Pawel Kieszek · Cordoba
90'🟥Javi Galán · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots11
2On target7
8Corners3
19Fouls25
5Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.36
box share (last 5)0.450.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days198.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
45.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.963.25
elo1429.651377.54
elo momentum (last 5)1.7718.22
eye test v1-0.640.44
eye trend v10.270.46
first sub minute (last 10)51.5045.30
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.74
keeper form v10.810.64
league points36.0028.00
league rank17.0020.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.0068.80
possession avg (last 5)44.8051.20
rest days8.087.00
scorer concentration0.240.44
season ppg1.200.93
skill v1-1.44-0.71
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.40
state index-0.45-0.46
sterile dominance v1-0.57-0.84
threat rate (last 10)0.210.26
threat rate (last 3)0.190.31
threat rate (last 5)0.210.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.60