← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 39% | 2.47 |
| Alcorcon win | 31% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.22 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Albert Dorca · Alcorcon |
| 65' | 🟨 | Mario Barco Vila · Lugo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Hugo Álvarez · Alcorcon |
| 74' | 🟨 | Casto · Alcorcon |
| 75' | ⚽ | Nicolás Albarracín · Lugo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Eddy Silvestre · Alcorcon |
| 87' | ⚽ | Mario Barco Vila · Lugo |
| 89' | 🟨 | Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Bellvis · Alcorcon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Anxo Carro |
| coach days | 259.00 | 532.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1459.61 | 1419.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.71 | -11.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 48.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.20 | 29.66 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |