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Huesca 2–2 Almeria

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win61%1.60
Draw25%3.93
Almeria win14%6.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Edoardo Soleri · Almeria
16'🟨Fran Rodríguez · Almeria
29'🟨Sulayman Marreh · Almeria
32'🟨Edoardo Soleri · Almeria
34'⚽ (og)Jorge Morcillo · Huesca
57'⚽Chimy Ávila · Huesca
61'🟨Chimy Ávila · Huesca
72'🟥Jorge Pulido · Huesca
79'🟨Íñigo López · Huesca
82'🟨Fidel · Almeria
84'⚽Edoardo Soleri · Almeria
86'🟥Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
90'🟨Luso · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots11
5On target6
12Corners3
18Fouls21
3Yellow cards4
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.23
box share (last 5)0.600.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days246.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
368.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.052.58
elo1566.371430.17
elo momentum (last 5)-13.1326.35
eye test v10.64-1.11
eye trend v1-0.060.43
first sub minute (last 10)66.8052.50
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.99
keeper form v10.670.76
league points55.0036.00
league rank1.0015.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2070.60
possession avg (last 5)52.2042.20
rest days8.088.08
scorer concentration0.270.28
season ppg1.961.29
skill v10.43-1.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.702.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.40
state index0.160.07
sterile dominance v1-0.26-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.310.21
threat rate (last 3)0.360.26
threat rate (last 5)0.310.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20