⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Gimnastic 1–2 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win35%2.77
Gimnastic win35%2.77
Draw30%3.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Tete Morente · Gimnastic
12'⚽Juan Villar · Tenerife
30'⚽Juan Villar · Tenerife
43'🟨Abraham Minero · Gimnastic
51'🟨Manu Barreiro · Gimnastic
65'🟨Julio Pleguezuelo · Gimnastic
68'🟨Sergio Tejera · Gimnastic
85'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
87'🟨Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
13Shots12
8On target5
4Corners6
21Fouls13
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.37
box share (last 5)0.440.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days184.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
31.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.003.75
elo1426.451486.25
elo momentum (last 5)-10.1112.53
eye test v1-0.480.84
eye trend v10.310.76
first sub minute (last 10)49.5047.10
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.58
keeper form v10.770.63
league points33.0037.00
league rank18.0013.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.6068.40
possession avg (last 5)48.4044.20
rest days8.005.83
scorer concentration0.260.26
season ppg1.181.32
skill v1-0.93-1.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.337.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.606.40
state index-0.610.06
sterile dominance v1-0.40-1.72
threat rate (last 10)0.210.29
threat rate (last 3)0.220.43
threat rate (last 5)0.230.38
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80