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Gimnastic 0–2 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win36%2.68
Gimnastic win35%2.79
Draw29%3.35

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Alberto Zapater · Zaragoza
41'⚽Simone Grippo · Zaragoza
45'🟨Cristian Álvarez · Zaragoza
51'🟨Jorge Pombo · Zaragoza
60'⚽Borja Iglesias · Zaragoza
64'🟨Javi Marquez · Gimnastic
86'🟨Vinícius Araújo · Zaragoza
90'🟨Alberto Benito · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
18Shots13
5On target7
4Corners2
19Fouls20
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.31
box share (last 5)0.470.44
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days169.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
231.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.003.23
elo1440.651449.27
elo momentum (last 5)10.7425.90
eye test v1-1.13-0.13
eye trend v10.320.33
first sub minute (last 10)56.3060.80
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.67
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.780.76
league points32.0034.00
league rank16.0012.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4074.20
possession avg (last 5)48.2047.00
rest days6.356.00
scorer concentration0.270.24
season ppg1.231.31
skill v1-0.96-0.44
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.20
state index-0.260.06
sterile dominance v10.03-0.49
threat rate (last 10)0.190.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.30
threat rate (last 5)0.180.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00