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Albacete 0–1 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win52%1.88
Draw28%3.47
Gimnastic win20%4.78

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Julio Pleguezuelo · Gimnastic
16'🟨Roman Zozulya · Albacete
42'🟨Maikel Mesa · Gimnastic
44'⚽Álvaro Vázquez · Gimnastic
55'🟨Chus Herrero · Albacete
77'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Albacete
78'🟨Xavier Molina · Gimnastic
82'🟨Fali · Gimnastic
90'🟨Sergio Tejera · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
4Shots5
0On target2
9Corners3
16Fouls19
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.25
box share (last 5)0.570.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days133.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Belmonte
163.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.02
elo1466.701427.88
elo momentum (last 5)0.72-0.84
eye test v1-0.38-0.88
eye trend v10.160.23
first sub minute (last 10)65.8056.70
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.05
keeper form v10.640.78
league points32.0029.00
league rank12.0019.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)60.0074.20
possession avg (last 5)41.6048.60
rest days7.007.83
scorer concentration0.320.28
season ppg1.281.16
skill v1-2.29-0.34
sot against avg (last 5)2.805.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.902.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.80
state index-0.03-0.46
sterile dominance v1-1.790.07
threat rate (last 10)0.350.20
threat rate (last 3)0.370.24
threat rate (last 5)0.320.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40