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Valladolid 3–2 Cultural Leonesa

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win63%1.54
Draw22%4.43
Cultural Leonesa win15%6.44

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Pablo Hervias · Valladolid
16'🟨Óscar Plano · Valladolid
29'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
34'⚽Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
39'🟨Fernando Calero · Valladolid
45'⚽Samuel Delgado · Cultural Leonesa
77'🟨— · Cultural Leonesa
79'🟨David García · Cultural Leonesa
81'⚽ (pen)Jaime Mata · Valladolid
83'🟨Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
86'🟨Javier Ontiveros · Valladolid
86'🟨Iza Carcelén · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨Giannis Gianniotas · Valladolid
90'🟨Borja · Valladolid
90'🟨Ángel García · Cultural Leonesa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
13Shots10
7On target3
6Corners3
19Fouls14
5Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidCultural Leonesa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.28
box share (last 5)0.800.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days217.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
643.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.84
elo1484.951449.11
elo momentum (last 5)11.00-8.28
eye test v1-0.64-0.40
eye trend v1-0.370.34
first sub minute (last 10)62.1054.10
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.71
keeper form v10.700.46
league points36.0029.00
league rank10.0016.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0083.40
possession avg (last 5)46.8063.00
rest days5.926.25
scorer concentration0.470.22
season ppg1.501.21
skill v1-0.481.60
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.00
state index0.17-0.55
sterile dominance v10.001.51
threat rate (last 10)0.180.20
threat rate (last 3)0.180.17
threat rate (last 5)0.200.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20