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Alcorcon 1–0 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Varon Aceiton

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win37%2.60
Draw33%2.86
Cadiz win30%3.22

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Mateo García · Alcorcon
24'🟨Hugo Álvarez · Alcorcon
73'🟨Hugo Álvarez · Alcorcon
73'🟥Hugo Álvarez · Alcorcon
87'🟨Lucas Bijker · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots11
5On target2
3Corners5
17Fouls17
2Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.460.68
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
coach days477.00660.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.321.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.04
dominance (last 5)0.500.47
elo1433.011600.59
elo momentum (last 5)-15.4330.15
eye test v1-0.47-0.40
eye trend v10.39-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)57.6054.00
form points (last 5)4.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.680.93
league points28.0046.00
league rank19.002.00
matches since blank0.0011.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6067.60
possession avg (last 5)47.6040.20
rest days7.927.00
scorer concentration0.260.27
season ppg1.121.92
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.209.80
skill v1-0.57-1.60
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.80
squad age30.0526.19
state index-0.570.87
sterile dominance v1-0.31-1.08
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.60