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Lorca FC 2–3 Huesca

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win45%2.16
Draw29%3.31
Lorca FC win26%3.76

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Aly Mallé · Lorca FC
24'⚽Alexander González · Huesca
29'🟨Alexander González · Huesca
30'⚽Emmanuel Apeh · Lorca FC
45'🟨Javier Muñoz · Lorca FC
53'🟨Emmanuel Apeh · Lorca FC
54'🟨Álex Gallar · Huesca
56'🟨Cucho Hernández · Huesca
59'⚽Chimy Ávila · Huesca
61'🟨Carlos Peña · Lorca FC
64'🟨Juan Pina · Lorca FC
66'⚽ (pen)Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
76'🟨Emmanuel Apeh · Lorca FC
76'🟥Emmanuel Apeh · Lorca FC
90'🟨Rulo Prieto · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
7Shots18
5On target5
3Corners8
21Fouls9
5Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLorca FCHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.570.58
cards avg (last 5)3.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco Artes Carrasco
coach days172.00203.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.663.40
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.12
dominance (last 5)0.470.62
elo1334.421583.65
elo momentum (last 5)-38.3621.56
eye test v1-0.630.43
eye trend v10.020.05
first sub minute (last 10)62.2056.50
form points (last 5)0.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
keeper form v10.590.75
league points16.0045.00
league rank22.002.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet7.003.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4074.40
possession avg (last 5)47.0051.00
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.210.32
season ppg0.671.88
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.406.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.6014.80
skill v1-1.05-0.15
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.605.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.40
squad age27.0826.28
state index-1.370.67
sterile dominance v1-0.58-0.48
threat rate (last 10)0.230.30
threat rate (last 3)0.270.31
threat rate (last 5)0.250.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60