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Huesca 2–1 Numancia

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Varon Aceiton

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win50%1.93
Draw29%3.30
Numancia win20%4.82

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Jorge Pulido · Huesca
39'🟨Chimy Ávila · Huesca
39'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia
40'🟨Pape Maly Diamanka · Numancia
51'🟨Carlos Gutiérrez · Numancia
52'⚽Chimy Ávila · Huesca
55'⚽Iñigo Pérez · Numancia
69'🟨Markel Etxeberria · Numancia
75'🟨Guillermo · Numancia
76'⚽ (pen)Cucho Hernández · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots11
7On target3
13Corners5
9Fouls22
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.35
box share (last 5)0.610.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days197.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEl Alcoraz
958.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.912.07
elo1567.251466.51
elo momentum (last 5)20.7034.81
eye test v10.47-0.37
eye trend v10.270.14
first sub minute (last 10)54.6067.00
form points (last 5)11.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.84
keeper form v10.810.71
league points40.0036.00
league rank1.004.00
matches since blank5.0013.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0063.40
possession avg (last 5)48.2044.40
rest days6.756.75
scorer concentration0.330.19
season ppg1.901.71
skill v1-0.29-1.75
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.20
state index0.750.34
sterile dominance v1-0.74-1.09
threat rate (last 10)0.290.24
threat rate (last 3)0.340.22
threat rate (last 5)0.310.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60