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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2–3 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win66%1.47
Draw23%4.17
Gimnastic win10%9.58

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Maikel Mesa · Gimnastic
18'🟨Otar Kakabadze · Gimnastic
23'⚽Adrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
29'🟨Emiliano Velazquez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
33'⚽Manu Barreiro · Gimnastic
36'🟨Juan Muñiz · Gimnastic
62'🟨Raúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
83'🟨Stole Dimitrievski · Gimnastic
87'🟨Javier Matilla · Gimnastic
88'🟨Maikel Mesa · Gimnastic
89'⚽ (pen)Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
90'🟨Abraham Minero · Gimnastic
90'⚽Manu Barreiro · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
29Shots10
6On target3
8Corners2
12Fouls17
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.40
box share (last 5)0.670.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days339.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
127.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.802.74
elo1522.041414.23
elo momentum (last 5)23.80-17.55
eye test v10.61-0.62
eye trend v10.240.09
first sub minute (last 10)52.9052.90
form points (last 5)11.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.10
keeper form v10.690.75
league points35.0021.00
league rank5.0018.00
matches since blank8.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.006.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4074.00
possession avg (last 5)51.6047.00
rest days14.9214.08
scorer concentration0.190.32
season ppg1.751.11
skill v10.30-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)4.406.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.20
state index0.46-0.54
sterile dominance v10.260.17
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.16
threat rate (last 5)0.230.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.80