⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win58%1.69
Draw27%3.58
Alcorcon win15%6.42

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

71'⚽Nicolao Dumitru · Alcorcon
82'⚽Álex Moreno · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
84'🟨Fran Beltrán · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
85'🟨Unai López · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
86'🟨Borja Dominguez · Alcorcon
90'⚽Raúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots8
6On target2
3Corners4
8Fouls17
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.530.67
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
4.20
coach days319.00442.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.651.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.13
dominance (last 5)0.560.56
elo1537.211448.44
elo momentum (last 5)0.3511.46
eye test v10.78-0.67
eye trend v10.190.30
first sub minute (last 10)56.8059.60
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.23
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.760.65
league points31.0024.00
league rank6.0017.00
matches since blank6.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6072.20
possession avg (last 5)52.0051.20
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.230.27
season ppg1.551.20
shot diff avg (last 5)3.803.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6012.20
skill v10.35-0.37
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.402.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.002.80
squad age25.6930.46
state index0.20-0.11
sterile dominance v1-0.07-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.240.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40