⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Cultural Leonesa 2–2 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cultural Leonesa win40%2.46
Draw32%3.06
Alcorcon win28%3.43

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
36'🟨Josep Señé · Cultural Leonesa
38'⚽Jonathan Pereira · Alcorcon
45'🟨Álvaro Peña · Alcorcon
49'🟨Laure · Alcorcon
57'⚽Ariday · Cultural Leonesa
59'⚽Albert Dorca · Alcorcon
62'🟨Iza Carcelén · Cultural Leonesa
82'🟨Casto · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots16
4On target5
7Corners4
8Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCultural LeonesaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.24
box share (last 5)0.580.73
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days581.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Reino de Leon
428.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.30
elo1459.371432.91
elo momentum (last 5)-15.0815.53
eye test v1-0.47-1.16
eye trend v10.21-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)62.4058.70
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.25
keeper form v10.780.61
league points18.0020.00
league rank15.0013.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win11.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2070.80
possession avg (last 5)53.8052.40
rest days6.757.67
scorer concentration0.310.25
season ppg1.131.25
skill v10.95-0.43
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.702.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.00
state index-0.91-0.12
sterile dominance v10.520.24
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.230.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20