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CA Osasuna 2–3 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Valdes Aller, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win53%1.83
Draw31%3.16
Alcorcon win16%6.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Hugo Álvarez · Alcorcon
42'⚽Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
45'🟨Marco Sangalli · Alcorcon
55'🟨Jonathan Pereira · Alcorcon
57'⚽Álvaro Giménez · Alcorcon
63'🟨Albert Dorca · Alcorcon
67'⚽Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
69'🟨Daniel Toribio · Alcorcon
72'⚽Marco Sangalli · Alcorcon
79'🟨Mateo García · CA Osasuna
85'🟨Albert Dorca · Alcorcon
85'🟥Albert Dorca · Alcorcon
90'🟨Sebastian Coris · CA Osasuna
90'⚽Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots8
3On target3
3Corners1
16Fouls22
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.150.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.30
box share (last 5)0.590.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days171.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sadar
414.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.272.06
elo1458.271422.90
elo momentum (last 5)12.2818.55
eye test v1-0.91-1.03
eye trend v1-0.57-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)60.3061.20
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.03
keeper form v10.780.64
league points25.0016.00
league rank3.0017.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0070.20
possession avg (last 5)44.4048.20
rest days8.888.21
scorer concentration0.240.33
season ppg1.791.14
skill v1-0.76-0.78
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.502.70
sot for avg (last 3)1.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.60
state index0.06-0.28
sterile dominance v1-0.590.04
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.180.17
threat rate (last 5)0.260.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60