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Gimnastic 1–2 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Nov 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gimnastic win38%2.57
Draw33%2.99
Oviedo win29%3.33

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
27'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
39'🟨Mossa · Oviedo
40'⚽ (pen)Manu Barreiro · Gimnastic
41'🟨Miguel Linares · Oviedo
59'🟨Jon Gaztañaga · Gimnastic
72'⚽Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
89'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
89'🟥Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
90'🟨Stole Dimitrievski · Gimnastic
90'🟨Daisuke Suzuki · Gimnastic
90'⚽ (pen)Aaron Ñiguez · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots18
2On target5
3Corners6
18Fouls16
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGimnasticOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.30
box share (last 5)0.520.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days72.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Municipal
134.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.691.79
elo1442.791467.62
elo momentum (last 5)15.12-13.38
eye test v10.06-0.38
eye trend v1-0.10-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)55.2058.00
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.780.92
keeper form v10.76—
league points15.0017.00
league rank18.0013.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2072.00
possession avg (last 5)41.8050.40
rest days6.927.17
scorer concentration0.360.31
season ppg1.151.31
skill v1-0.91-0.44
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
state index-0.07-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.90-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.25
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40