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Cordoba 1–5 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win49%1.99
Draw29%3.38
Gimnastic win22%4.43

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
15'⚽Ikechukwu Uche · Gimnastic
19'⚽Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
31'🟨Jon Gaztañaga · Gimnastic
39'🟨Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
46'🟨Edu Ramos · Cordoba
60'🟨Stole Dimitrievski · Gimnastic
74'🟨Juan Delgado · Gimnastic
77'🟨Pawel Kieszek · Cordoba
79'⚽Sergio Tejera · Gimnastic
82'⚽Manu Barreiro · Gimnastic
89'🟨José Fernández · Cordoba
90'⚽ (pen)Manu Barreiro · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
19Shots15
6On target10
13Corners2
10Fouls13
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.36
box share (last 5)0.540.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days14.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
44.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.202.76
elo1405.221427.68
elo momentum (last 5)-3.2310.07
eye test v1-0.18-0.30
eye trend v1-0.260.13
first sub minute (last 10)57.4057.10
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.99
keeper form v10.740.71
league points9.008.00
league rank19.0021.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6074.80
possession avg (last 5)51.4049.80
rest days3.174.00
scorer concentration0.360.43
season ppg1.001.00
skill v1-0.09-0.18
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
state index-0.43-0.28
sterile dominance v10.010.17
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.24
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00