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Valladolid 4–0 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2017 · Thu, Oct 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Varon Aceiton

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win57%1.70
Draw26%3.70
Alcorcon win16%5.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Marco Sangalli · Alcorcon
38'🟨Borja Lázaro · Alcorcon
41'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
60'⚽Míchel Herrero · Valladolid
87'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
90'⚽Giannis Gianniotas · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots10
6On target2
9Corners4
27Fouls21
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.630.60
cards avg (last 5)3.803.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
coach days103.00376.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.962.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.18
dominance (last 5)0.510.51
elo1511.581431.73
elo momentum (last 5)-5.62-32.27
eye test v10.80-0.61
eye trend v1-0.420.16
first sub minute (last 10)57.9053.90
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.610.66
league points16.0010.00
league rank6.0017.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.004.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0074.00
possession avg (last 5)53.8049.20
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.36—
season ppg1.781.11
shot diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.8011.60
skill v10.32-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.103.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.202.80
squad age27.1031.44
state index0.01-0.84
sterile dominance v10.23-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40