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Tenerife 2–0 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win56%1.73
Draw28%3.54
Gimnastic win16%6.08

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Tyronne · Tenerife
33'🟨Daisuke Suzuki · Gimnastic
63'🟨Bernabé Barragán · Gimnastic
64'⚽ (pen)Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
68'🟨Lucas Aveldaño · Tenerife
72'⚽Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
73'🟨Xavier Molina · Gimnastic
84'🟨Javi Jiménez · Gimnastic
86'🟨Daisuke Suzuki · Gimnastic
86'🟥Daisuke Suzuki · Gimnastic
88'🟨Raul Camara · Tenerife
90'🟨Tete Morente · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
22Shots6
7On target2
11Corners1
14Fouls15
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.34
box share (last 5)0.590.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days706.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
36.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.622.62
elo1511.621424.73
elo momentum (last 5)-35.61-8.01
eye test v1-0.18-0.13
eye trend v1-0.15-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)59.6057.30
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.15
keeper form v10.720.70
league points10.005.00
league rank11.0020.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6076.00
possession avg (last 5)48.0053.00
rest days6.0812.98
scorer concentration0.330.40
season ppg1.430.83
skill v1-0.330.16
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.20
state index-0.18-0.56
sterile dominance v1-0.150.29
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.00