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Zaragoza 0–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win48%2.02
Draw30%3.26
Alcorcon win22%4.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon
29'🟨David Navarro · Alcorcon
31'🟨Gaizka Toquero · Zaragoza
38'⚽Álvaro Peña · Alcorcon
50'🟨Borja Dominguez · Alcorcon
54'🟨Jon Errasti · Alcorcon
61'🟨Oliver Buff · Zaragoza
67'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
90'🟨Álvaro Giménez · Alcorcon
90'🟨Casto · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots7
1On target2
1Corners3
16Fouls30
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.33
box share (last 5)0.560.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days71.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
344.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.561.66
elo1431.051448.25
elo momentum (last 5)-2.5442.83
eye test v1-0.20-0.55
eye trend v10.020.14
first sub minute (last 10)62.0045.50
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.99
keeper form v10.790.72
league points4.005.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4073.80
possession avg (last 5)51.8049.20
rest days6.775.81
season ppg1.331.67
skill v10.76-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.40
state index-0.420.38
sterile dominance v10.690.10
threat rate (last 10)0.220.20
threat rate (last 3)0.170.19
threat rate (last 5)0.200.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.80