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Cadiz 0–0 Alcorcon

← Segunda DivisiΓ³n 2017 Β· Sun, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win44%2.24
Draw33%3.00
Alcorcon win24%4.08

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Esteban Burgos · Alcorcon
18'🟨Rafidine Abdullah · Cadiz
45'🟨Laure · Alcorcon
48'🟨Jon Errasti · Alcorcon
72'🟨Daniel Romera · Cadiz
76'🟨Albert Dorca · Alcorcon
90'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots9
5On target3
7Corners4
19Fouls18
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.590.51
cards avg (last 5)0.200.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
coach days513.00330.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.20β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.403.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.361.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.17β€”
dominance (last 5)0.45β€”
elo1545.051454.73
elo momentum (last 5)4.8516.22
eye test v1-0.40-0.76
eye trend v1-0.060.15
first sub minute (last 10)55.1049.30
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.74β€”
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.4071.60
possession avg (last 5)45.4045.00
rest days8.007.88
season ppg3.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80β€”
shots for avg (last 5)10.00β€”
skill v1-1.54-0.83
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.20
squad age27.8129.58
state index0.180.01
sterile dominance v1-0.82-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.270.19
threat rate (last 3)0.290.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60