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Alanyaspor 2–1 Erzurumspor FK

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win55%1.77
Draw26%3.75
Erzurumspor FK win20%4.91

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'⚽Papiss Demba Cissé · Alanyaspor
57'🟨Pierre Kanstrup · Erzurumspor FK
59'⚽ (pen)Welinton · Alanyaspor
71'🟨Gilles Sunu · Erzurumspor FK
77'⚽ (pen)Gilles Sunu · Erzurumspor FK
90'🟨Cenk Ahmet Alkılıç · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots6
6On target3
6Corners2
13Fouls21
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporErzurumspor FK
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.750.46
cards avg (last 5)2.201.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
coach days129.009.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.114.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.12
dominance (last 5)0.590.54
elo1556.381418.83
elo momentum (last 5)17.2733.33
eye test v10.560.05
eye trend v1-0.280.55
first sub minute (last 10)68.3050.80
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
keeper form v10.760.63
league points39.0025.00
league rank8.0020.00
matches since blank12.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.0013.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2076.00
possession avg (last 5)48.6047.00
rest days6.006.96
scorer concentration0.500.21
season ppg1.340.86
shot diff avg (last 5)3.801.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.8013.40
skill v1-0.16-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.40
squad age28.8628.69
state index0.47-0.19
sterile dominance v1-0.27-0.54
threat rate (last 10)0.300.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.32
threat rate (last 5)0.270.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80