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Erzurumspor FK 1–2 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win35%2.74
Erzurumspor FK win33%2.94
Draw32%3.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor
45'⚽Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
49'🟨Rashad Muhammed · Erzurumspor FK
57'⚽Volkan Fındıklı · Konyaspor
59'⚽Taylan Antalyalı · Erzurumspor FK
62'🟨Moryke Fofana · Konyaspor
67'🟨Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
68'🟨Abdou Razack Traore · Konyaspor
82'🟨İbrahim Akdağ · Erzurumspor FK
90'🟨Lokman Gör · Erzurumspor FK

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots10
3On target4
8Corners4
11Fouls15
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricErzurumspor FKKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.28
box share (last 5)0.430.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days140.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKazım Karabekir Stadyumu
79.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.552.28
elo1475.511520.67
elo momentum (last 5)-14.1313.00
eye test v1-0.49-1.07
eye trend v10.410.18
first sub minute (last 10)58.6058.90
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.10
keeper form v10.680.72
league points16.0025.00
league rank17.008.00
matches since blank8.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4073.60
possession avg (last 5)53.0044.20
rest days27.0025.73
scorer concentration0.250.22
season ppg0.941.47
skill v10.58-0.72
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.302.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.40
state index-0.320.10
sterile dominance v10.44-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80