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Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzurumspor FK win40%2.44
Draw31%3.18
Kayserispor win30%3.27

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Tiago Lopes · Kayserispor
32'⚽Cristian Săpunaru · Kayserispor
38'🟨Lokman Gör · Erzurumspor FK
38'🟨İbrahim Akdağ · Erzurumspor FK
38'🟨Cristian Săpunaru · Kayserispor
38'🟨Tjaronn Chery · Kayserispor
45'🟨Şamil Çinaz · Kayserispor
45'⚽Taylan Antalyalı · Erzurumspor FK
90'🟨Muammer Yıldırım · Kayserispor
90'🟨Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
20Shots7
5On target3
5Corners3
14Fouls12
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricErzurumspor FKKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.420.41
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKazım Karabekir Stadyumu
2.80
coach days113.0022.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-5.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.408.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.402.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.581.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.14
dominance (last 5)0.480.42
elo1382.791491.93
elo momentum (last 5)17.0639.05
eye test v1-0.67-0.14
eye trend v10.170.58
first sub minute (last 10)59.2064.30
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.710.63
league points16.0021.00
league rank20.0016.00
matches since blank8.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6077.80
possession avg (last 5)48.8048.40
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.180.22
season ppg0.841.11
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.0010.80
skill v10.11-0.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.606.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.903.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.20
squad age28.8029.76
state index-0.380.05
sterile dominance v10.360.00
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20