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Akhisarspor 1–1 Erzurumspor FK

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win47%2.05
Draw29%3.39
Erzurumspor FK win24%4.01

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Auremir · Erzurumspor FK
37'🟨Elvis Manu · Akhisarspor
38'⚽ (pen)Güray Vural · Akhisarspor
51'🟨Aykut Çeviker · Akhisarspor
76'🟨Lokman Gör · Erzurumspor FK

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots5
5On target1
3Corners2
13Fouls16
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporErzurumspor FK
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.430.54
cards avg (last 5)1.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSpor Toto Akhisar Stadyumu
2.00
coach days63.0063.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.03
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.607.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.872.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.09
dominance (last 5)0.500.58
elo1486.321360.84
elo momentum (last 5)-32.9530.01
eye test v1-0.170.02
eye trend v1-0.000.09
first sub minute (last 10)53.2053.90
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-3.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.150.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.470.69
league points11.008.00
league rank18.0021.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2075.20
possession avg (last 5)44.4051.20
rest days5.007.04
scorer concentration0.250.33
season ppg0.850.62
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.404.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.8014.40
skill v1-0.23-0.08
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.40
squad age30.3528.78
state index-0.88-0.30
sterile dominance v1-0.52-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.280.28
threat rate (last 3)0.300.26
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60