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Trabzonspor 0–0 Erzurumspor FK

← Süper Lig 2018 · Mon, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win65%1.48
Draw21%4.64
Erzurumspor FK win14%6.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Gilles Sunu · Erzurumspor FK
45'🟨Ogenyi Onazi · Trabzonspor
65'🟨Auremir · Erzurumspor FK
90'🟨Ibrahim Šehić · Erzurumspor FK

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots10
1On target4
7Corners5
10Fouls14
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporErzurumspor FK
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.570.57
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
coach days143.0051.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.05
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedical Park Stadyumu
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.606.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.806.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.912.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.14
dominance (last 5)0.550.63
elo1647.931343.42
elo momentum (last 5)6.676.73
eye test v10.600.05
eye trend v1-0.260.06
first sub minute (last 10)60.0054.00
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.650.84
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.700.68
league points19.005.00
league rank3.0021.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0078.00
possession avg (last 5)60.4051.20
rest days15.0016.00
scorer concentration0.270.20
season ppg1.730.50
shot diff avg (last 5)2.005.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.2015.00
skill v11.350.21
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.88
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.20
squad age28.9227.65
state index0.76-0.37
sterile dominance v11.02-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.30
threat rate (last 5)0.220.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40