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Sivasspor 2–2 Erzurumspor FK

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win53%1.81
Draw25%3.85
Erzurumspor FK win22%4.46

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽ (pen)Jasmin Ščuk · Erzurumspor FK
36'⚽Emre Kılınç · Sivasspor
55'⚽Arouna Koné · Sivasspor
57'🟨Lokman Gör · Erzurumspor FK
79'⚽İbrahim Akdağ · Erzurumspor FK
90'🟨Taylan Antalyalı · Erzurumspor FK

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
20Shots11
7On target5
3Corners2
12Fouls10
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporErzurumspor FK
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.36—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.610.63
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu
coach days107.0015.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.08—
corner diff avg (last 5)0.003.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.807.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.71—
defensive leak (last 5)0.20—
dominance (last 5)0.50—
elo1530.661336.70
elo momentum (last 5)-42.42-6.82
eye test v10.12-0.54
eye trend v1-0.02—
first sub minute (last 10)53.1055.75
form points (last 5)4.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.730.57
league points4.001.00
league rank15.0021.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win4.0013.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2071.25
possession avg (last 5)53.2044.50
rest days15.0013.91
season ppg0.800.20
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20—
shots for avg (last 5)14.40—
skill v10.68-0.93
sot against avg (last 5)6.604.25
sot for avg (last 10)4.10—
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.25
squad age29.0328.97
state index-0.68-1.47
sterile dominance v1-0.08-0.81
threat rate (last 10)0.25—
threat rate (last 3)0.320.29
threat rate (last 5)0.300.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40